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NuWatt designs, installs, and manages solar, battery, heat pump, and EV charger systems across 9 states. One company, one warranty, one point of contact.
Get a Free QuoteReal-world running cost data across 9 states. Using actual utility rates, COP efficiency curves, and gas AFUE ratings to show exactly how much you save (or do not save) by switching from gas to a heat pump.
$800-1,400
HP Annual Cost
$1,200-2,200
Gas Annual Cost
25-45%
Avg Savings
9
States Compared
Last updated: February 2026. Based on utility rate filings and manufacturer COP data.
The cost comparison boils down to two efficiency metrics: the heat pump's COP (Coefficient of Performance) and the gas furnace's AFUE (Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency).
Key Assumptions
We use COP 3.0 at 30F, 2.0 at 5F, and 1.5 at -5F for heat pump calculations. Gas AFUE is 96% for new furnaces and 80% for old (15+ year) furnaces. Annual heating load is 50 million BTU for a typical 2,000 sq ft home in the Northeast and 30 million BTU in Texas.
Heat pump annual cost vs 96% AFUE gas furnace. Based on actual 2026 utility rates in each state. Assumes 50M BTU annual heating load (Northeast) and 30M BTU (Texas).
| State | Electric ($/kWh) | Gas ($/therm) | HP Annual | Gas Annual | Savings | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | $0.28 | $1.55 | $1,260 | $1,940 | 35% ($680) | Eversource $0.34, NGrid $0.32 |
| Connecticut | $0.27 | $1.48 | $1,215 | $1,855 | 34% ($640) | Eversource $0.27, UI $0.28 |
| Rhode Island | $0.29 | $1.60 | $1,305 | $2,000 | 35% ($695) | RI Energy $0.30/kWh |
| New Hampshire | $0.27 | $1.52 | $1,215 | $1,900 | 36% ($685) | Avg $0.27/kWh across utilities |
| New Jersey | $0.26 | $1.30 | $1,170 | $1,625 | 28% ($455) | Gas-dominant market, narrow savings |
| Maine | $0.27 | $1.85 | $1,350 | $2,200 | 39% ($850) | CMP $0.27, Versant $0.32. Most heat with oil |
| Vermont | $0.22 | $1.45 | $990 | $1,810 | 45% ($820) | Lowest electric rate, strong savings |
| Pennsylvania | $0.21 | $1.20 | $945 | $1,500 | 37% ($555) | Low gas prices narrow the gap |
| Texas | $0.15 | $1.10 | $810 | $1,375 | 41% ($565) | DFW 15c, Houston 16c, Austin 12c |
* Annual costs assume SCOP 2.8 for Northeast states, SCOP 3.2 for Texas. Gas at 96% AFUE. Heating load 50M BTU (NE) / 30M BTU (TX).
Rebate amounts vary by equipment and income. See what you qualify for.
Check My EligibilityHeat pump efficiency drops as temperatures fall. Here is the cost to produce 100,000 BTU at each temperature compared to a 96% AFUE gas furnace at $1.50/therm. The breakeven point is typically around 0 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit.
| Outdoor Temp | Heat Pump COP | HP Cost / 100K BTU | Gas Cost / 100K BTU | HP Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47F | 4 | $1.90 | $4.35 | 56% |
| 30F | 3 | $2.55 | $4.35 | 41% |
| 17F | 2.5 | $3.05 | $4.35 | 30% |
| 5F | 2 | $3.80 | $4.35 | 13% |
| -5F | 1.5 | $5.10 | $4.35 | -17% |
| -13F | 1.2 | $6.35 | $4.35 | -46% |
Why Heat Pumps Still Win Seasonally
Even though heat pumps lose their cost advantage below 5F, the vast majority of heating hours occur above 20F. In Boston, only 3-5% of winter hours fall below 5F. The seasonal average COP of 2.5-3.0 makes the heat pump cheaper overall.
Most New England heat-pump installs are hybrid: the heat pump does the everyday heating and your existing oil, propane, or gas boiler stays on as backup for the coldest hours. The practical question is not whether a heat pump saves money, but at what outdoor temperature the boiler becomes the cheaper way to make heat. Enter your own rates below to find that crossover point for your home. For a deeper look at cold-weather performance, see our heat pumps below zero guide, or estimate whole-season running costs with the heat pump savings calculator.
Most New England heat-pump retrofits keep the existing boiler as backup. Find the outdoor temperature where running the boiler actually costs less than the heat pump.
From your bill — see our per-utility rate pages for the exact figure.
Older oil/propane boilers run 70–80%; modern condensing gas reaches 90–95%.
Price per gallon you pay your delivery company or utility.
Your switchover temperature
≈ 15°F
Run your heat pump down to about ≈15°F. Below that, your heating oil boiler delivers the same heat for less.
At COP 2.8 — a common cold-snap design temperature.
Flat across temperatures — fuel efficiency does not change with the weather.
We compare the cost to deliver the same unit of heat — one MMBtu (a million Btu) — from each system, then find the temperature where they are equal.
Heat pump $/MMBtu = (electricity rate × 293.07 kWh) ÷ COP(temp)
Boiler $/MMBtu = (fuel price × 1,000,000) ÷ (energy content × AFUE)
Balance point = temperature where the two are equal
293.07 is the kWh in one MMBtu of electricity. Heat-pump COP — the units of heat delivered per unit of electricity — falls as it gets colder, so the heat pump line rises to meet the flat boiler line at your switchover temperature. Your heating oil boiler currently costs $32.28/MMBtu, so the heat pump needs a COP of about 2.72 to match it.
COP curve used (illustrative curve within the range of published cold-climate (ccASHP) product ratings — your model's data is used at your consultation): COP 3.5 at 47°F, 2.8 at 17°F, 2.2 at 5°F, 1.8 at -5°F, linearly interpolated between points. Fuel energy contents are standard physical constants (EIA): heating oil 138,500 Btu/gal, propane 91,500 Btu/gal, natural gas 100,000 Btu/therm. This is an educational estimate; a right-sized integrated control is set with your equipment's measured data.
Educational estimate. The COP curve is a typical cold-climate profile, not a specific product's rating; we confirm the switchover setpoint with your equipment's manufacturer data at consultation.
Section 25C: EXPIRED
The federal Section 25C energy efficiency tax credit (up to $2,000 for heat pumps) expired December 31, 2025. There is no federal heat pump credit for homeowners in 2026.
Mass Save
Up to $16,000
Income-eligible can get 100% paid
Energize CT
$250-$1,000/ton
Standard + Optimization tiers
Efficiency Maine
$1,000-$3,000/unit
Income-tiered, max 3 units
Clean Heat RI
Up to $11,500
60% of cost, 100% income-eligible
Efficiency VT
$600-$1,200/ton
Based on system type
NJ Whole Home
Up to $7,500
Graduated rebate + utility rebates
If your gas furnace is 15+ years old, it likely operates at 80% AFUE or lower. The savings from switching to a heat pump are even more dramatic.
$2,425
Old furnace (80% AFUE)
Annual cost, MA avg rate
$1,260
Heat pump (SCOP 2.8)
Annual cost, MA avg rate
$1,165/yr
Annual savings (48%)
$29,125 over 25 years
Pairing solar panels with a heat pump means the sun powers your heating and cooling. This combination eliminates both your electricity bill and your heating fuel bill, creating massive long-term savings.
Gas furnace + grid
$4,300/yr
$107,500 over 25 years
Heat pump + grid
$2,800/yr
$70,000 over 25 years
Heat pump + solar
$200/yr
$5,000 over 25 years
COP data by temperature, cold-climate model comparisons, and real winter performance.
How heat pumps work in drafty, poorly insulated homes and what upgrades help.
Combine solar and heat pump for maximum savings. Full bundle cost analysis.
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